Oscar Predictions

It is that time of year again --- time to predict this year's Oscar winners. In each category I will list who will win and who should win. Enjoy:

Best motion picture of the year

Will Win: The Hurt Locker
Should Win: Precious
 

Performance by an actor in a leading role

Will Win: Jeff Bridges in "Crazy Heart"
Should Win: Jeff Bridges in "Crazy Heart"

Performance by an actor in a supporting role

Will Win: Christoph Waltz in "Inglourious Basterds"
Should Win: Christoph Waltz in "Inglourious Basterds"

Performance by an actress in a leading role

Will Win: Sandra Bullock in "The Blind Side"
Should Win: Gabourey Sidibe in "Precious: Based on the Novel 'Push' by Sapphire"

Performance by an actress in a supporting role

Will Win: Mo'Nique in "Precious: Based on the Novel 'Push' by Sapphire"
Should Win: Mo'Nique in "Precious: Based on the Novel 'Push' by Sapphire"

Achievement in directing

Will Win: Kathryn Bigelow for "The Hurt Locker"
Should Win: James Cameron for "Avatar"

Best animated feature film of the year

Will Win: Up
Should Win: Up

Achievement in art direction

Will Win: Avatar
Should Win: The Young Victoria

Achievement in cinematography

Will Win: Avatar
Should Win: Inglourious Basterds

Achievement in costume design

Will Win: The Young Victoria
Should Win: Nine

Best documentary feature

Will Win: The Cove
Should Win: Burma VJ

Best documentary short subject

Will Win: Music by Prudence
Should Win: China's Unnatural Disaster: The Tears of Sichuan Province

Achievement in film editing

Will Win: The Hurt Locker
Should Win: District 9

Best foreign language film of the year

Will Win: The Secret in Their Eyes
Should Win: The White Ribbon

Achievement in makeup

Will Win:Star Trek
Should Win: Star Trek

Achievement in music written for motion pictures (Original score)

Will Win: Up
Should Win: Up

Achievement in music written for motion pictures (Original song)

Will Win: "The Weary Kind (Theme from Crazy Heart)" from "Crazy Heart"
Should Win: "The Weary Kind (Theme from Crazy Heart)" from "Crazy Heart"

Best animated short film

Will Win: Logorama
Should Win: Granny O'Grimm's Sleeping Beauty

Best live action short film

Will Win: The New Tenants
Should Win: Instead of Abracadabra

Achievement in sound editing

Will Win: The Hurt Locker
Should Win: Avatar

Achievement in sound mixing

Will Win: The Hurt Locker
Should Win: Avatar

Achievement in visual effects

Will Win: Avatar
Should Win: Avatar

Adapted screenplay

Will Win: "Precious: Based on the Novel 'Push' by Sapphire"
Should Win: "Precious: Based on the Novel 'Push' by Sapphire"

Original screenplay

Will Win: "The Hurt Locker"
Should Win: "Inglourious Basterds"

Oscar Live Blog

That is right. I am going to live blog the Oscars. Each commercial should see a new post with the previous winners, losers, and my musings. Or at least that is my plan. I should start around 6 or so and will continue through the night.

See you all (or my one DW/LJ reader) tonight!

Oscar Live Blog Begins... Sort Of

Good seat? Check.
Place for my computer? Check.
Internet connection? Check.
First round of tasty food and adult beverages? Check.

First thought? This is going to be a fun and interesting night. A lot of people seem to be the "red carpet" lovers. I get that it's a big draw (the fashion and whatnot), but I watch for the films and the history, not gowns and tuxes. Nothing against those who watch for that, but it isn't my thing. So...I'll be eating too much and typing out random thoughts during the next hour of pre-show. 

The set-up here is quite nice. There iI have access to the three big Oscar programs now --- E!, TV Guide Network, and, of course, ABC (the net goes to the red carpet at the top of the hour).

Anywho, I'll be back shortly with some more musings.

Oscar Live Blog...Continues...Sort Of

Well, ABC has gone with something different this year... Instead of having an hour of the red carpet, they are showing the Barbara Walter's special for an hour and then a half hour of the red carpet. This means the main even doesn't start to 7.30 central... The show already goes late into the evening, so we get a half hour less of sleep tonight. Great!

Mo'Nique's interview was different. Nothing like talk of sexual and physical abuse. Bullock's interview is much less interesting. Then again, no one is as interesting as Mo'Nique.

Oh well, back to the craft service table for some more food and drink.

Oscar Live Blog Slugs Along... Slowly

Why interview people like Morgan Freeman, Gabourey Sidibe, Helen Mirren, James Cameron, or Quentin Tarantino when you can interview the likes of the Jonas Brothers?

Sometimes I hate that ABC has the Oscars. Grr...

Only 5 more minutes of this insanity. Grabbing a quick bathroom break before the show officially stars.

Oscar Live Blog Begins... For Real

So we start off with all ten of the best actor and actress nominees. Lots of awkward smiling and waving. This is a bad idea, but Gabourey Sidibe of Precious gets the loudest applause. Is this a sign of good things to come?

Now the hosts of the evening are introduced: Nope! Fake out! It's Neil Patrick Harris. He is glammed up and ready to sing a musical number. It's odd to hear a Harold and Kumar reference and anal sex mentioned in the opening of an Oscar telecast, but NPH pulls it off nicely.

NOW we get the hosts --- Alec Baldwin and Steve Martin. This dual host format is going to be tiresome; I feel it already. They are literally descending from the ceiling. Not a good sign.

They introduce each other. Minimal laughter. Welcome to the Oscars. Yada yada yada.

Joke about the accounting company, then joke about Meryl Streep. Yawn...

Now we kid around about the flicks no one has seen. Uh huh.... Yawn...

Mispronounce DAME as DAMN. Hilarious stuff, guys. Dame Helen Mirren tries to smile. "Tries" being the operative word...

Now we move to the cast of Precious. Bad jokes ensue that would be considered racist if it weren't being delivered by Hollywood elites.

Sorry, Academy, but Woody Harrelson hasn't been funny since Cheers --- and even then, not so much.

Avatar jokes. Yes, yes, yes.... Put on 3D glasses to make the jokes about the amount of money it made.

Now jokes about Cameron and Bigelow's divorce and the deadly gifts they send each other. Again, HI -LAR-I-OUS, Not...

Nazi jokes about Inglourious Basterds, And now some Jew jokes...

Sandra Bullock jokes. Matt Damon jokes. Zack Efron jokes (Why is the High School Musical dude at the Oscars?). Taylor Lautner jokes (why is the Twilight dude at the Oscars?) IS THERE ANY ORIGINALITY LEFT IN HOLLYWOOD?

Oscar Live Blog --- Best Supporting Actor

Christoph Waltz should OWN this category. No one came closer to delivering a perfect role last year. His depiction of the Jew-hunting Nazi in Inglourious Basterds was amazing, frightening, and beautiful.

And the winner is: Christoph Waltz

So far I am 1 for 1.

His speech about Tarantino was a bit confusing (a ship meandering or something), but he's probably a bit nervous. This is his first big award show... Good for him!

Oscar Live Blog --- Look at Blind Side

It's time for the first clips of the night from our first Best Picture nominee: The Blind Side.

All the usual stuff: Sandra Bullock, big guy screaming, sports action, Bullock threatening violence, uplifting spirit, etc.

Short and to the point.

Oscar Live Blog --- Best Animated Film

Up should have this in the bag. Pixar does not lose this category.

BUT---The Fantastic Mr. Fox could pull the upset. I doubt it, but it is possible.

The banter between Cameron Diaz and Jude Law Steve Carrell (Law was a no-show) was weird. The TelePrompTer still had references to Jude Law and Diaz was clearly thrown off guard.

The winner is: Up

I am 2 for 2.

I love the score for Up, so inspiring. If only they could keep playing that all night!

The winner gave a nice speech. Mentioned how Up started as a third-grade flip-book. Congrats to all those involved.

Oscar Live Blog --- Best Original Song

Why is Miley Cyrus presenting an Academy Award? Seriously? She sings and it is a music category, I get that. But since when does anyone associate her with Oscar?

Anywho, "The Weary Kind" should win for Crazy Heart. There are a few songs from Disney's Princess and the Frog. Normally a Disney song would win, but multiple nominees in one category will have too many split votes. Or that is how things should play out...

The winner is: "The Weary Kind"

And I am now 3 for 3.

Oh great, they look a little over-served. Or maybe the HD presentation is making their nerves look like booze...

And note: If you win an Oscar, DO NOT wear black sunglasses on to the stage. It is inappropriate.

Oscar Live Blog --- Look at District 9

Chris Pine is introducing District 9? Guess he is available since Star Trek got pretty much zero Oscar buzz.

Let's see... The clips for D9 look like the trailer. Which, I suppose, is the point. Sell some DVDs!

Oscar Live Blog --- Best Original Screenplay

Downey Jr and Tina Fey.... Yeah, that is an odd coupling, even for the Oscars. But they are quite funny... Mole people jokes always kill.

Tarantino should win for Inglourious Basterds. The Academy loves him. But Hurt Locker (my pick) or Up could upset. But I doubt it.

Winner is: Hurt Locker.

I am 4 for 4. Awesome!

Boo to lefty political speech!

Oscar Live Blog --- Molly Ringwald (???)

Molly Ringwald? At the Oscars? REALLY?

Oh, nevermind. It's a John Hughes tribute.

She owes that man for her whole career. If it weren't for him casting her in Breakfast Club, she'd be working in Starbucks or KMart.

Ah, here comes Ferris Bueller... Nope, I mean Matthew Broderick.

Clips galore. Music. That man made some great '80s movies. Bless him.

And now a John Hughes reunion. It's Jon Cryer, McCauley Culkin, Judd Nelson, Ally Sheedy, and others who I cannot place right now.

Sort of nice. Sort of creepy.  Now let's applaud for a dead man's grieving family...

Oscar Live Blog --- Look at Up

Who would YOU have introduce Up? Why Samuel A. Jackson, of course!

Again, this is amazing music.

Nothing special. Just clips from the animated flick along with its historic note of being only the second animated film to be in the best picture race...

Oscar Live Blog --- Best Short (Animated, Documentary and Live Action)

They sure are making these ladies walk down a lot of steps in long frilly dresses. Is a spill in the works? Picturing that is fun.

A Matter of Loaf and Death should win because it is a Wallace and Grommit short and they usually win, but I am going with Logorama. It seems like it may be more to the nuttiness the Academy likes in this category.

Winner is: Logorama

I am 5 for 5.

The documentary short should go to Music by Prudence. It was about a disables African musician. It pulls at heart strings.

And the winner is: Music by Prudence

I am 6 for 6.

Live action short should go to The New Tenants. It's about a gay couple. Case closed for an Oscar.

And the winner is: The New Tenants

I am 7 for 7.

Oscar Live Blog --- Best Makeup

Ben Stiller is dressed like a NaVi weirdo. And he is talking like one, all the clicking included...

And a rehearsal joke... And a Nazi joke.

Star Trek should win, for all the pointy ears and alien effects. But it is doubtful, but possible, that The Young Victoria could win because it is a period piece. The Academy LOVES to give the more "arty" awards to Britishy flicks.

The Winner is: Star Trek

And I am now 8 for 8.

Oscar Live Blog --- Look at A Serious Man

Jeff Bridges is introducing A Serious Man.

A serious man talking about A Serious Man. Get it?


 

Oscar Live Blog --- Best Adapted Screenplay

Up in the Air is supposed to win as it has won the Writers Guild award in this category. BUT, Up in the Air has disappointed in the other guild awards, so an upset could be in the works... Could Precious sneak in an early win? Yep, and I called it!

The winner is: Precious

I am now 9 for 9.

The writer is out of breath, he is so surprised. Good job, my man!

Oscar Live Blog --- Governor's Awards

Queen Latifah.... She is something else, and I mean that in a good way.

This is just an extra award (sort of like the lifetime achievement award still to come) for four deserving Hollywood types like Roger Corman and Lauren Bacall. It's nice for them to get something shiny.

Oscar Live Blog --- Best Supporting Actress

Mo'Nique WILL win. She WILL. There is no doubt. None at all. It is sort of sad to watch the other four actresses (all of whom are deserving of the win in any other year) squirming in their seats, hoping for one of the biggest upsets of the night. But it is NOT going to happen. They are losing and Mo'Nique is getting a shiny Oscar to put in her bathroom...

Winner: Mo'Nique.

I am 10 for 10.

Mo'Nique gave amazing speeches at the Golden Globes, the Screen Actors Guild awards, and the Independent Spirit Awards. This ought to be a hoot!

She is a beautiful woman, just have to say. Giving kudos to other black winners, very gracious. Very inspiring, I love her more than I already did. very good, madame! Very good!!

Oscar Live Blog --- Look at An Education

Did anyone in America watch this British film? 

I did, but I see everything....

Oscar Live Blog --- Best Art Direction

Avatar will likely win, because art direction is considered a technical award. Sadly, The Young Victoria will lose out to art that is computer generated, not actually there... Is this the start of things to come?

The winner is: Avatar

I am 11 for 11.

Oscar Live Blog --- Best Costume Design

The Young Victoria should win here as it is a British period piece. The only other film that has a shot is Nine for all the showy gowns used in its musical numbers.

Winner: The Young Victoria

I am 12 for 12.

Oscar Live Blog --- Look at Precious

Whoot! I am rooting for you, Precious!

Charlize Theron introducing it, though? What the hell does she have to do with it? Why not have someone like, oh, I don't l know, Mo'Nique of its director, Lee Daniels, or the winning writer introduce it?

Oscar Live Blog --- Skit and Horror Tribute

Taylor Lautner? Really?

And the skit was weird.

That's all you need to know...

Oscar Live Blog --- Best Sound Editing and Mixing

Sound Editing should go to The Hurt Locker. Why? It was loud. Avatar likely deserves this award, but life and the Oscars are not fair.

Winner is: The Hurt Locker

I am 13 for 13.



Sound Mixing should go to The Hurt Locker as well. The Academy does not split the two very often. But this could be the year... Avatar does have a lot more of the "soft" noises. Still, people want to reward an anti-war flick, so I'm betting Hurt Locker racks up another trophy.

Winner is: The Hurt Locker

I am 14 for 14.

I like when speeches are short and precise. The tech men and women know how to accept an award!

Oscar Live Blog --- Look at Inglourious Basterds

Killin' nazis.

What else does anyone need to know about this amazing film?!?!?

Oscar Live Blog --- Best Cinematography

Sandra Bullock is on stage (and not to pick up an Oscaer, not yet anyways)...

Avatar should win this hands-down. The new tech makes it the shoe-in. But Basterds looked better, and that's in 2D!

Winner: Avatar

I am 15 for 15.

Oscar Live Blog --- In Memoriam

And now Demi Moore is introducing the In Memoriam segment. Last year there was a beautiful chorus and I am happy to see it lives (no pun intended). Is it weird someone made a Ghost comment when Swayze's dead...?

Here are a few I will miss most:

David Carridine
Dom Deluise
Ron Silver
Horton Foote
Budd Schulberg
Karl Malden

Tasteful song by James Taylor. Good deal, Academy.

Oscar Live Blog --- Best Original Score

Up's moving music should win an Oscar, but  The Hurt Locker could win one because, well, it's The Hurt Locker. And it does have that weird Middle Eastern-y music once in a while. Then again, Avatar has a long shot, but shot. Anytime James Horner is in this category he is a threat. But that doesn't mean either of those should win! Up should, dammit!

OH HELL. Interpretive dance. Oscar! You know this never works out well. Why make us suffer? Cut the five minutes of this BS and get on with the show. We'd rather see who wins golden dudes rather than watch dudes dressed in tight pants fly around a stage! For the record, no one in this room is paying attention. There was a mass exodus for the bathrooms.

Back to the award, thankfully.

The winner: Up

I am  16 of 16.

Note: This is exactly where I want to be right now. This gives me some wiggle room just in case there are some upsets in the major acting and picture awards.

Oscar Live Blog --- Best Visual Effects

As if we need to read the envelope.... Avatar has this in the bag.

Winner: Avatar

I am now 17 for 17.

Oscar Live Blog --- Look at Up in the Air

Jason Bateman is introducing this flick. He is awesome in my book, and he is very good in this flick.

It's just too bad Up in the Air is not a very good movie. (Yet the critics love it, the weirdos!)

Oscar Live Blog --- Best Documentary Feature

The Cove has everything the Academy likes: an environmental message and foreign pedigree. But this category is always a toss-up. My least sure pick of all 24.

Winner: The Cove

My record is now 18 for 18.

Oscar Live Blog --- Best Film Editing

Tyler Perry is now announcing film editing...  Interesting.

The Hurt Locker should win for all the changing shots. The Academy eats that up. But, again, Avatar could win it. District 9, though, deserves it.

Winner is: The Hurt Locker

I am 19 for 19.

Looks like The Hurt Locker is on a roll. Winning a lot because it's heading for the big prize or because it is going to be denied the big prize?

Oscar Live Blog --- Look at The Hurt Locker

Again, just a glorified DVD ad.

Oscar Live Blog --- Best Foreign Language Film

Shock of shock. Folks with non-American names handing out the award for foreign language films.

The White Ribbon should win since it is the best of all nominees. But, as we all know, that is not always the case. So, what is going against The White Ribbon? Winning the grand prize at last year's Cannes film festival. The Academy rarely gives the Palmes D'Or winner an Oscar as well.  But The Secret in Their Eyes apparently played well in Academy screenings (or so I read from here in Louisiana).... We will see. This is my second least sure pick, but I am going with the Argentine flick, The Secret in Their Eyes!

Winner: The Secret in Their Eyes

My record: 20 for 20.

Oscar Live Blog --- Look at Avatar

Kathy Bates rocks. And she is introducing Avatar. As if anyone NEEDS an introduction to Avatar!

Thankfully, this is the tenth and FINAL best picture introduction.

Oscar Live Blog --- Best Actor

This is Jeff Bridges' year to win. He has been nominated before and lost to Nicolas Cage (Leaving Las Vegas) and James Coburn (Affliction). But, this is the Oscars. The only actor who could possibly pull the upset here is George Clooney. It is doubtful, but possible. Another to watch is Jeremy Renner. The only reason he is a dark horse is his role was in The Hurt Locker. In case you aren't paying attention, it is on a roll tonight. Still, I am going with Bridges on this one.

I do like the set-up. Last year the Academy had five winning actors/actresses present a short monologue about each of the five nominated actors and actresses. It is a nice, personal touch.

Winner: Jeff Bridges

I am now 21 for 21. (Doing a little better than I anticipated. I was betting I'd miss something in the foreign language/shorts categories).

Oscar Live Blog --- Best Actress

Best actress is a toss-up and a half. On one hand you have Sandra Bullock. She has won the Golden Globe AND the Screen Actors Guild Award. That means the momentum is with her. Sort of. A lot of voters have been arguing that her best work was NOT in The Blind Side, but rather in The Proposal. That could stop her Oscar dreams.

There is also surge as of late to Meryl Streep. I mean, hell, Streep has been nominated more than 15 times so she must be doing something right. There is a somewhat legitimate argument that Streep should have won last year. And, if that is to be believed, there is a decent chance the actors bloc may vote to "correct" their error. But I am not sold completely on that outlook. Streep did put on a great performance in Julie and Julia and Julia Child.

So, while I am going with Bullock I will keep an eye out for Precious' Gabourey Sidibe. If enough people split votes between Streep and Bullock, Sidibe is ready to get an Oscar. This is a tough one. We are moments away from seeing!

Hmm... The personal stories this go round are a  little creepy. They are trying to be funny, but it comes off as tacky, not sweet.

Holy hell, it's Oprah talking for Gabourey!!!!! Oh, Oprah is making my little Precious cry! Lots of applause. Good for her. She really is honored just to be nominated.

Winner: Sandra Bullock

I am now 22 of 22.

Oscar Live Blog --- Best Director

OK... I have a hard time with this one. Not because I don't know who will win, but rather because of why that person will win.

The winner will be Kathryn Bigelow. Was she the best director? Not by a long shot. But she is going to win because the Academy feels like they need to give a directing statue to a woman. I am not being sexist, just honest. Watch The Hurt Locker and tell me its direction was better than that of Avatar.

Avatar is not the best film of last year, don't get me wrong. But it was the best directed. Hell, James Cameron created new technology.

BUT, and I say this with only slight pause, the winner could be Lee Daniels. Why? Because it would mark the first directing win for an African-American. When Bigelow wins tonight, look for Oscar to give the win to an African-American in the near future. It is sad the Academy thinks like this, but that's the way it works.

Winner: Kathryn Bigelow

I am now 23 for 23.

Oscar Live Blog --- Best Picture

Could I go 24 for 24? I've never done that! It would be awesome!!!!

But now we are at the BIGGIE.

BEST PICTURE

Look for The Hurt Locker to continue its winning ways. I say that with a heavy heart as it is NOT deserving. So why will it win? Because it was written by a liberal reporter, is an anti-war film, and was directed by a woman who is James Cameron's ex-wife.

BUT, this year there aren't just ten nominees. There's also a new voting method. Instead of just giving the award to the film with the most votes, it is a preferential ballot. That is a fancy way of saying votes are weighted.... Odd, I know, but that's the Academy for you.

Winner: The Hurt Locker

I went 24 for 24. Good for me.

Too bad a so-so film won Hollywood's biggest award.

BOO!

Oscar Live Blog --- The Night Is Over

So I was perfect. That's all you need to know...

That isn't true.

You need to know that The Hurt Locker just became the lowest-grossing Best Picture winner in history. It lost to nine other flicks, including the highest-grossing film of all-time.

I will leave you with this:

BOO! HISS! BOO!

Academy of Motion Pictures Arts and Sciences, you screwed up tonight. Anyone tuning in for the big box office flick will never return. Not, though, because their flick, Avatar, lost. But rather because the winning flick was one they never saw. And, when they do see it, they will be turned off by it.

Again: BOO! HISS! BOO!