Life. Blogged.

Well, it is that time of year. Actually that isn't true. For years on end Oscar has made its nominees announcement one or two weeks further into January, but this past year The Academy decided they hated waiting for all the guilds and other awards shows to make their picks and award their winners before The Academy even got around to nominating people and films. So, in an effort to make themselves "more relevant" they pushed up the nominations window. This had three huge impacts. First, nominations began near the beginning of December. Several films, including some of the biggest and most anticipated, had not even opened at the theater. This means that some of the Academy voters didn't get a chance to see all of the films. The second impact was ending the nomination period before all of the guilds (especially the influential Directors Guild) had a chance to make their feelings known. This could result in the broader Academy and the member guilds having very different picks. Finally, this is the first time in decades that the Academy makes its nominations before the Golden Globes are handed out. This, again, could result in some diverging picks.

And this isn't even noting the new e-voting....

Two quick nomination thoughts before the list:

1) Two movies that hit it big were Beasts of the Southern Wild and SILVER LININGS PLAYBOOK! Beasts is the little movie that could. It got a best actress nomination (including the youngest actress ever nominated), along with screenwriting and directing. Love it, love it, love it. And my personal favorite all along has been Silver Linings Playbook. SLP scored the sextuplet of nominations at the top. SLP has someone from ALL FOUR acting categories. SLP got a directing nod. And it got a Best Picture nod. This is a feat that has not been matched in more than three decades. And, in nearly every case (all but one in the history of The Academy), the film went on to win Best Picture.

2) Where are the big name directors? Sure, Spielberg got a nod for Lincoln, but Kathryn Bigelow didn't get a nom for Zero Dark Thirty. Tom Hooper didn't get one for Les Miserables. Ben Affleck didn't get one for  Argo. The chances of a film winning Best picture fall VERY dramatically when the film's director doesn't get nominated. In fact, it has been so long since a film won Best Picture without having its director nominated that it is considered a "death knell" for a film's chances.
 

So. On to the nominees. This will include the list of nominees in the top categories and my CURRENT thoughts on the CURRENT front-runners:

Best Picture:

"Beasts of the Southern Wild"--- Could be a dark house. Watch out SLP!

"Silver Linings Playbook" --- Not only is the my favorite, but getting a nod in every top category vaults it to the front.

"Zero Dark Thirty"

"Lincoln"--- Another dark horse. A historical Spielberg film has to be in the mix until the end.

"Les Miserables"

"Life of Pi"

"Amour"

"Django Unchained"

"Argo"
 

Best Director:

David O'Russell, "Silver Linings Playbook" ---- He has to be the frontrunner now with no Bigelow, Affleck or Hooper.

Ang Lee, "Life of Pi"--- Could be a dark horse because of the technical achievements in the film.

Steven Spielberg, "Lincoln"

Michael Haneke, "Amour"

Benh Zeitlin, "Beasts of the Southern Wild"

 

 

Best Actor:

Daniel Day Lewis, "Lincoln"--- Dark horse one because he becomes Lincoln.

Denzel Washington, "Flight" --- Dark horse two because he is simply amazing.

Hugh Jackman, "Les Miserables"

Bradley Cooper, "Silver Linings Playbook" --- Hands down the favorite for the moment.

Joaquin Phoenix, "The Master"

 

Best Actress:

Naomi Watts, "The Impossible"

Jessica Chastain, "Zero Dark Thirty"--- Dark horse one. She is very good; very versatile.

Jennifer Lawrence, "Silver Linings Playbook"--- Frontrunner. Not because of SLP's nomination haul, but because she is just that good.

Emmanuelle Riva, "Amour"

Quvenzhané Wallis, "Beasts of the Southern Wild"--- Who could say no to the youngest Oscar nominee ever?

 

Best Supporting Actor:

Christoph Waltz, "Django Unchained"

Philip Seymour Hoffman, "The Master"

Robert De Niro, "Silver Linings Playbook" --- He is irresistible here. Hilarious, infuriating, sad.

Alan Arkin, "Argo"

Tommy Lee Jones, "Lincoln"

 

Best Supporting Actress:

Sally Field, "Lincoln"

Anne Hathaway, "Les Miserables" --- She should have this in the bag.

Jacki Weaver, "Silver Linings Playbook"--- But SLP could run the table.

Helen Hunt, "The Sessions"

Amy Adams, "The Master"

Yep, it is THAT time of year again. Time for the Hollywood elite and their addiction therapists to step out from the shadows and into a primetime telecast!

Like last year's Oscars, there are again 10 nominees for Best Picture. But this year the Academy is using a variation of "preferential voting" to determine winners. That means the most number one rankings do not a winner make. In fact, the winning picture could, mathematically, be ranked as low as sixth on a majority of ballots and still come away a winner. I am sure that puts a lot of faith in the Academy!

Anywho, here is a list of nominees for each category followed by who SHOULD win and who is LIKELY to win. Because of the preferential voting, it is beyond impossible to say who will win, just who is most likely.

Oh, and I will also be live blogging the Oscars beginning anywhere from 4 to 7 (when the show starts), depending on my setup. So, here it goes:

BEST PICTURE
"127 Hours"
"Black Swan"
"The Fighter"
"Inception"
"The Kids Are All Right"
"The King's Speech"
"The Social Network"
"Toy Story 3"
"True Grit"
"Winter's Bone"

SHOULD WIN:  Inception
LIKELY TO WIN: The King's Speech


BEST ACTOR
Javier Bardem, "Biutiful"
Jeff Bridges, "True Grit"
Jesse Eisenberg, "The Social Network"
Colin Firth, "The King's Speech"
James Franco, "127 Hours"

SHOULD WIN:  Jesse Eisenberg
LIKELY TO WIN: Colin Firth


BEST ACTRESS
Annette Bening, "The Kids Are All Right"
Nicole Kidman, "Rabbit Hole"
Jennifer Lawrence, "Winter's Bone"
Natalie Portman, "Black Swan"
Michelle Williams, "Blue Valentine"

SHOULD WIN:  Jennifer Lawrence
LIKELY TO WIN: Natalie Portman


BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Christian Bale, "The Fighter"
John Hawkes, "Winter's Bone"
Jeremy Renner, "The Town"
Mark Ruffalo, "The Kids Are All Right"
Geoffrey Rush, "The King's Speech"

SHOULD WIN:  John Hawkes
LIKELY TO WIN: Christian Bale


BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Amy Adams, "The Fighter"
Helena Bonham Carter, "The King's Speech"
Melissa Leo, "The Fighter"
Hailee Steinfeld, "True Grit"
Jacki Weaver, "Animal Kingdom"

SHOULD WIN:  Jacki Weaver
LIKELY TO WIN: Melissa Leo


BEST DIRECTOR
Darren Aronofsky, "Black Swan"
Ethan Coen, Joel Coen, "True Grit"
David Fincher, "The Social Network"
Tom Hooper, "The King's Speech"
David O. Russell, "The Fighter"

SHOULD WIN: David Fincher
LIKELY TO WIN: David Fincher


BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
"Another Year," Mike Leigh
"The Fighter," Paul Attanasio, Lewis Colich, Eric Johnson, Scott Silver, Paul Tamasy
"Inception," Christopher Nolan
"The Kids Are All Right," Stuart Blumberg, Lisa Cholodenko
"The King's Speech," David Speidler

SHOULD WIN:  Inception
LIKELY TO WIN: The King's Speech


BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
"127 Hours," Simon Beaufoy, Danny Boyle
"The Social Network," Aaron Sorkin
"Toy Story 3," Michael Arndt
"True Grit," Ethan Coen, Joel Coen
"Winter's Bone," Debra Granik, Anne Rosellini

SHOULD WIN:  Winter's Bone
LIKELY TO WIN: The Social Network


BEST ART DIRECTION
"Alice in Wonderland," Robert Stromberg; Karen O’Hara, Peter Young
"Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows: Part I," Stuart Craig; Stephanie McMillan
"Inception," Guy Dyas; Lisa Chugg, Paul Healy, Douglas A. Mowat
"The King’s Speech," Eve Stewart; Judy Farr
"True Grit," Jess Gonchor; Nancy Haigh

SHOULD WIN:  Alice in Wonderland
LIKELY TO WIN: The King's Speech


BEST CINEMATOGRAPHER
"Black Swan," Matthew Libatique
"Inception," Wally Pfister
"The King’s Speech," Danny Cohen
"The Social Network," Jeff Cronenweth
"True Grit," Roger Deakins

SHOULD WIN:  Inception
LIKELY TO WIN: True Grit


BEST COSTUME DESIGN
"Alice in Wonderland," Colleen Atwood
"I Am Love," Antonella Cannarozzi
"The King’s Speech," Jenny Beaven
"The Tempest," Sandy Powell
"True Grit," Mary Zophres

SHOULD WIN:  Alice in Wonderland
LIKELY TO WIN: The King's Speech


BEST EDITING
"127 Hours," Jon Harris
"Black Swan," Andrew Weisblum
"The Fighter," Pamela Martin
"The King’s Speech," Tariq Anwar
"The Social Network," Kirk Baxter, Angus Wall

SHOULD WIN:  Black Swan
LIKELY TO WIN: The Social Network


BEST MAKEUP
"Barney’s Version"
"The Way Back"
"The Wolfman"

SHOULD WIN:  The Wolfman
LIKELY TO WIN: The Wolfman


BEST SCORE
"127 Hours," A.R. Rahman
"Inception," Hans Zimmer
"The Social Network," Trent Reznor, Atticus Ross
"The King’s Speech," Alexandre Desplat
"How to Train Your Dragon," John Powell

SHOULD WIN:  Inception
LIKELY TO WIN: The Social Network


BEST SONG
"If I Rise" from "127 Hours"
"Coming Home" from "Country Strong"
"I See the Light" from "Tangled"
"We Belong Together" from "Toy Story 3″

SHOULD WIN:  "If I Rise" (127 Hours)
LIKELY TO WIN: "We Belong Together" (Toy Story 3)


BEST SOUND
"Inception"
"The King's Speech"
"Salt"
"The Social Network"
"True Grit"

SHOULD WIN:  Inception
LIKELY TO WIN: Inception


BEST SOUND EDITING
"Inception"
"Toy Story 3"
"TRON Legacy"
"True Grit"
"Unstoppable"

SHOULD WIN:  Inception
LIKELY TO WIN: Inception


BEST VISUAL EFFECTS
"Alice in Wonderland"
"Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows: Part I"
"Hereafter"
"Inception"
"Iron Man 2"

SHOULD WIN:  Inception
LIKELY TO WIN: Inception


BEST FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM
"Biutiful" (Mexico)
"Dogtooth" (Greece)
"In a Better World" (Denmark)
"Incendies" (Canada)
"Outside the Law" (Algeria)

SHOULD WIN:  In a Better World
LIKELY TO WIN: In a Better World


BEST ANIMATED FEATURE FILM
"How to Train Your Dragon"
"The Illusionist"
"Toy Story 3"

SHOULD WIN:  Toy Story 3
LIKELY TO WIN: Toy Story 3


BEST ANIMATED SHORT
"Day & Night"
"The Gruffalo",
"Let’s Pollute"
"The Lost Thing"
"Madagascar, carnet de voyage (Madagascar, a Journey Diary)"

SHOULD WIN:  The Lost Thing
LIKELY TO WIN: Madagascar...


BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE
"Exit through the Gift Shop"
"Inside Job"
"Gasland"
"Waste Land"
"Restrepo"

SHOULD WIN:  Exit through the Gift Shop
LIKELY TO WIN: Inside Job


BEST DOCUMENTARY SHORT
"Killing in the Name"
"Poster Girl"
"Strangers No More"
"Sun Come Up"
"The Warriors of Qiugang"

SHOULD WIN:  Killing in the Name
LIKELY TO WIN: Strangers No More


BEST LIVE ACTION SHORT
"The Confession"
"The Crush"
"God of Love"
"Na Wewe"
"Wish 143"

SHOULD WIN:  Wish 143
LIKELY TO WIN: God's of Love

Here are my top 10 films from 2010...

10. Black Swan --- Natalie Portman and Mila Kunis star in Darren Aronofsky's "thriller"/psychological caper about rival dancers. More than a ballet movie, thankfully.

9. The Fighter --- Christian Bale and Mark Wahlberg star as half-brothers in this drama from David O. Russell. More than a boxing movie, thankfully.

8. The King's Speech --- Colin Firth stars as King George VI who seeks the council of a speech therapist, played by Geoffrey Rush. More than a stuttering film, thankfully.

7. Easy A --- Emma Stone knocks it out of the park as a teen who lets a little lie turn into a high school nightmare. More than a sex comedy, thankfully.

6. Never Let Me Go ---  A British drama based on the novel of the same name about the inhabitants and secrets of a "special" school. More than a period piece, thankfully.

5. Four Lions --- An insightful and funny look at terrorism. Yes, I just wrote that. More than bomb and jihad jokes, thankfully.

4. Winter's Bone --- A drama set in the Ozarks about a teen girl responsible for her impoverished family and felonious father. More than depressing scenery, thankfully.

3. Inception --- An all-star cast, including  the awesome Tom Hardy, star in Christopher Nolan's dream within a dream within a dream. More than a dream, thankfully.

2. The Kids Are All Right --- A surprisingly deft flick starring Julianne Moore and Annette Bening as same-sex parents whose teens want to meet their biological father. More than lesbian jokes, thankfully.

1. The Social Network --- After some serious back and forth, I have decided that the critics have nailed it: The Social Network, starring Jessee Eisenberg, about the founding days of Facebook is, in fact, the best film of 2010. With the sharp writing of Aaron Sorkin and the perfect direction of David Fincher, this film stands out from the crowd. More than just a self-centered billionaire, thankfully.

THE GHOST WRITER (Summit - Feb 17) Roman Polanski earned strong reviews for this Hitchcock-style drama in which Ewan MacGregor ghostwrites the memoirs of a former British Prime Minister played by Pierce Brosnan. It has a Rotten Tomatoes rating of 84% fresh  and did well by indie film standards. Oscar Chance: Summit will have to step up to the plate in order to revive it. Insiders at the distrib have special hopes for a Brosnan supporting bid.

SHUTTER ISLAND (Paramount - Feb 19) Paramount had initially penciled in this fine Martin Scorsese thriller starring Leonardo DiCaprio for last season’s awards race. But financial considerations led them to move to the very unfriendly Oscar territory of February. Yet it became the legendary director’s most successful film ever at the box office, earning $292 million worldwide and receiving good critical notice. Oscar Chance: The studio intends to campaign it and has already sent out screening notices to Guilds and Academy members. But it will be competing with Par’s two year-end entries True Grit and The Fighter for attention from the front office.

ALICE IN WONDERLAND (Walt Disney Pictures - March 5) Tim Burton’s take on the classic tale remains one of the biggest success stories of the year with a whopping billion dollar take at the worldwide boxoffice. Critical response was right down the middle with a 51% fresh rating at Rotten Tomatoes. Oscar Chance: This would seem a natural  bet for the Golden Globes Comedy/Musical categories and lots of technical nods at the Academy, too.

CITY ISLAND (Anchor Bay - March 19) Andy Garcia’s finely-honed comic turn in this New York-centric family comedy could -- and should -- be remembered at Golden Globe time. Oscar Chance: Slim, but the tiny distributor has hired a PR firm to make sure it’s not forgotten. Awards pundits got a DVD in the mail this week.

THE GIRL WITH THE DRAGON TATTOO (Music Box - March 19) The first in the Swedish trilogy became the most successful foreign language release of the year and has created Best Actress buzz for star Noomi Rapace. Oscar Chance: Music Box will have to spend to reap rewards.  Problem is, Rapace has become so hot that she’s now filming the Sherlock Holmes sequel in England and likely won’t be around to promote the final chapter, The Girl Who Kicked The Hornet’s Nest when it opens at the end of the month. She'll miss valuable face time in front of voters.

GREENBERG (Focus Features - March 19)  Focus has set up some screenings and includes it in their Academy ads. But it's not likely to give much support beyond that to this Ben Stiller/Noah Baumbach  passion project which never quite caught on the way they hoped. Oscar Chance: Uh, probably not.

HOW TO TRAIN YOUR  DRAGON (Dreamworks Animation - March 26) Rapturous reviews gave it a 98% fresh rating on Rotten Tomatoes placing it between Toy Story 3 and The Social Network for bragging rights. Top box office  doesn’t hurt, either. Oscar Chance: An animated feature nod is a given. But Dreamworks is aggressively going for the gold with this one, starting with a big DVD launch party next week to renew the fire. Suggestions of not only an animated  category nom but also Best Picture mean they dream big there. But is there room for two toons on that list of 10 which will include Disney's Toy Story 3?

PLEASE GIVE (Sony Pictures Classics - April 30) Writer/Director Nicole Holofcener’s quirky comedy was well received and sparked buzz of an Original Screenplay nomination upon its release last spring. But that seems to have faded. Oscar Chance: It’s still deserving as is Ann Morgan Guilbert’s nifty supporting turn as the tenant who just won’t die. SPC will be asking members to please give the DVD a play.

MOTHER AND CHILD (Sony Pictures Classics - May 7) Rodrigo Garcia’s multi-character drama came and went in theatres, so wisely SPC made sure the screener was the very first one Academy voters got this season. Oscar Chance: On the DVD box, they are suggesting Annette Bening for Best Actress but, great as she is here, there’s no way she gets it for this over the higher profile The Kids Are All Right.

IRON MAN 2 (Paramount - May 7) The first Iron Man in 2008 only landed nominations for Visual Effects and Sound Editing. Oscar Chance: Visual Effects and Sound Editing.

LETTERS TO JULIET (Summit - May 14) This chick flick did pretty well at the box office. Oscar Chance: Vanessa Redgrave was terrific in a supporting role. And, in a 14 month span during which she lost her daughter, sister, and brother, she could use some good news. Long shot.

ROBIN HOOD (Universal - May 14) Ridley Scott’s take on the legendary Robin Hood tale starring Russell Crowe opened Cannes and did better internationally than in the U.S. where it just barely crossed $100 million. Oscar Chance: Even Universal doesn’t think it has one. Maybe a tech category or two.

SOLITARY MAN (Anchor Bay – May 21) Michael Douglas received some of the best reviews of his career in this highly unsympathetic  role. Oscar Chance: There is a lot of good will for the cancer-stricken star. And Anchor Bay is making sure the DVD gets circulated to press who can remind voters of this performance. An indie spirit nomination is a definite possibility.

WINTER’S BONE (Roadside Attractions – June 11) A critical darling and surprise indie hit at $6 million and counting, this could be the sleeper awards success of the season. Oscar Chance: Roadside needs to do everything it can to put it front and center with critics groups who could champion it. Could be forced into the Best Picture race this year a la The Hurt Locker. With some precursor awards, newcomer Jennifer Lawrence could crack the tough Best Actress group.

I AM LOVE (Magnolia Pictures - June 18) A sumptuous showcase for Scottish Oscar winner Tilda Swinton who speaks Italian with a Russian accent and gets to wear great clothes. Oscar Chance: Italy killed the film’s chances for a Best Foreign Language nod by submitting something else. But Magnolia is going to try to put it into other races like Cinematography, Art Direction, Costumes, and Actress where Tilda’s awesome language feat could gain traction with her fellow actors.

TOY STORY 3 (Disney/Pixar - June 18) A worldwide smash and, with 99% positive reviews on Rotten Tomatoes, it's the highest rated movie of the year that isn’t a French documentary about Henri-Georges Clouzot. Oscar Chance: The frontrunner for animated feature and on just about everyone’s list for a Best Picture nomination as well. Is 3 the charm? Neither of the other two Toy Story's were around when the animated category was created. But the first one got a special Oscar for John Lasseter.

DESPICABLE ME (Universal - July 9) Call it the toon that saved Universal this year. It had strong reviews and great box office. Oscar Chance: In a field of five animated nominees, it’s a given. But if there are only three, its chances become one in a minion.

THE KIDS ARE ALL RIGHT (Focus Features – July 9) It's THE focus for Focus this year. They hope to turn this $20 million grossing movie about lesbian parents who encounter the birth father of their kids into that rare comedy that cracks Best Picture. Oscar Chance: Parlaying a Golden Globe Comedy/Musical win into a Best Picture nomination seems doable with screenplay. And acting nominations for Annette Bening and Mark Ruffalo very likely. The deserving Julianne Moore competing with Bening for Best Actress recognition could be a tougher sell in that overcrowded field. Both women are overdue.

INCEPTION (Warner Bros – July 16) Christopher Nolan was snubbed for The Dark Knight so will the Academy make it up to him for this audacious and original fever dream of a movie that has made three-quarters of a billion  at the worldwide boxoffice and inspired love letters from critics? Oscar Chance: How can voters deny this achievement even if they don’t quite get it? Best Picture and loads of tech noms while iffier is the always great Leonardo DiCaprio who has to compete with himself in Shutter Island for a Best Actor nod. Hey, he can dream can’t he?

THE CONCERT (The Weinstein Company – July 30) This French comedy sleeper surprised and delighted members who saw it at the official Academy screening. And they've been talking about it ever since. Oscar Chance: Not eligible for Foreign film, plus it didn’t hang around long and Harvey’s got bigger fish to fry. But it could turn up some place where you least expect it. Golden Globes, for sure.

GET LOW (Sony Pictures Classics - July 30) Nice-sized indie hit for SPC is now going strong in its third month and has special appeal for older voters. Oscar Chance: Robert Duvall is a good bet in the Best Actor race and Sissy Spacek might squeak into Best Supporting Actress.  Original Screenplay is possible together with a long shot shot for Picture if later entries fizzle.

CAIRO TIME (IFC Films - August 6) This quiet adult drama received nice notices for its talented star, Patricia Clarkson, in a romance about an ill-fated brief encounter set in Egypt. Oscar Chance: In a weaker year for actresses, Clarkson could have scored. But the competition is too tough and the film is just too small. Indie Spirits, anyone?

ANIMAL KINGDOM (Sony Pictures Classics - August 13) This tough Australian crime drama joined Mother and Child as the first DVD screener sent to Academy members this season, but its box office has been spotty. Oscar Chance: If those voters pop this thing in their DVD player, they will see a classic supporting actress turn from Jacki Weaver who deserves the recognition. (And the T-shirt SPC sent to bloggers promoting her performance.)

EAT PRAY LOVE (Sony Pictures – August 13) A bestselling book, some decent if not spectacular box office, and a starring role for Julia Roberts on global locations should add up to something worth awards attention, right? Well, she did get a Golden Globe nomination last year for the flop Duplictiy so... Oscar Chance: Pray.

LOVELY, STILL (Monterey Media - September 10) A small little gem of a drama about two old people who find romance near the end of their lives features brilliant performances from Martin Landau and Ellen Burstyn. They both deserve awards recognition even though the movie came and went without a whimper and has little hope of being seen by voters. Oscar Chance: Fortunately  Landau and Burstyn already have one.

The movies have been unveiled, the reviews are in, the bloggers have blogged, so what’s the verdict? Who’s in, who’s out, who’s hoping for a recount? With a surprisingly active Toronto Film Festival winding down to a halt, and Venice and Telluride becoming distant memories, let’s see where the movies that came in with Oscar ambition and hit one, two, or all three award contender-centric fests now stand at this key early juncture. 

THE SOCIAL NETWORK - Ironically, the one movie that perhaps generated the biggest buzz this week wasn’t at any of the Big Three. The Social Network stole the thunder from Toronto by beginning screenings for onliners in New York and Los Angeles before it opens the New York Film Festival on September 24th. Oscar Chance: It instantly became anointed a frontrunner for Best Picture.

THE BLACK SWAN - It took Venice by storm with one of the most enthusiastic opening night ovations in years. But at award time on the Lido it was virtually overlooked (except for a breakthrough honor for Mila Kunis). Top reviews and lots of awards talk followed at Telluride and Toronto, especially for Natalie Portman. Oscar Chance: Very much alive in key races including newfound frontrunner status for Portman in Best Actress. Big question is how will older voters react to film’s kinkier aspects?

SOMEWHERE - Sofia Coppola’s quiet character study won the top prize in Venice despite mixed reviews and some cries that jury president and Coppola intimate Quentin Tarantino played favorites. (Tarantino vehemently dismissed the criticism.) The film sat out Telluride and Toronto by design and will likely be held back from screenings until closer to its late December release. Oscar Chance: Still a bit of a mystery but may be too soft to make a dent. Coppola though is well-liked by her fellow writers and directors and Stephen Dorff is said to be quite good in it.

127 HOURS - Danny Boyle’s first effort since sweeping the Oscars with Slumdog Millionaire two years ago was generally met with favorable reviews and good buzz in Telluride followed by at least one standing ovation in Toronto. Oscar Chance: Strongest bet in Best Actor for James Franco. A longer shot in Best Picture as "Farewell to Arm" scene may be too much for some at the Academy.

CONVICTION - Middling reviews and lack of strong buzz in Toronto make this true story a long shot. Oscar Chance: Hillary Swank has a shot in Best Actress but she’s down the list in an exceptionally tough field. Sam Rockwell has film’s best shot in Supporting Actor. Juliette Lewis is also possible but role may be too small.

THE KING’S SPEECH - Strong outstanding period piece puts Harvey Weinstein back in the Oscar game big-time. Triumphed over all comers in Telluride with subsequent buzz seeing hundreds turned away in Toronto. Great reviews and a real crowd pleaser. Oscar Chance: A slam dunk for major nominations across the board and an instant frontrunner that should play right into Academy’s lap.

MADE IN DAGENHAM - Another British period piece that debuted in Toronto to good results and sweet reviews. Story about a group of female factory workers fighting for equal pay is very accessible entertainment. Oscar Chance: This may be Sony Classics' best shot to get into Best Picture, very Academy friendly film with acting noms possible for star Sally Hawkins and supporters Miranda Richardson and Bob Hoskins.

ANOTHER YEAR - Mike Leigh’s best film since Secrets And Lies didn’t win anything in Cannes in May and seemed to get mixed to excellent reactions in North American premieres in Telluride and Toronto. Those who like it love it. Oscar Chance: Leigh films usually go over well with the Academy but surest thing is the acclaimed performance of Lesley Manville. She should go for supporting where she'd have a better chance than in the overcrowded lead actress category.

THE TOWN - Ben Affleck drew pretty good reviews as an actor and especially director out of Venice and Toronto. Depending on how it does at the box office starting this weekend, it could follow a similar trajectory as its producer Graham King’s Oscar winning The Departed. Or not. Oscar Chance: Pedigree is fine but may be too much in the violent action genre. Strong performances could crack one of the acting categories, with Jeremy Renner the most likely possibility in support.

HEREAFTER - Clint Eastwood ‘s latest got mixed reviews out of Toronto. But Ebert and Corliss dug it and this likely will play better with the older-skewing Academy members who may relate to its themes of afterlife. The 4-time Oscar winner and Acad favorite is now 80 and, even though his most recent two films Gran Torino and Invictus got a grand total of just two noms between them, you can never count Clint out. Oscar Chance: Clint is still a force. May have an ‘afterlife’ following Toronto and upcoming closing night spot at the New York Film Festival.

RABBIT HOLE - Glowing reviews, especially for its three main actors -- Nicole Kidman, Aaron Eckhart and Dianne Wiest. Thursday’s news of Lionsgate’s quick pickup following Monday night’s Toronto World Premiere, and a planned 2010 Oscar campaign, make this biggest award season news to come out of Toronto. Oscar Chance: With a savvy push by Lionsgate and top notch performances and writing, this is suddenly a player in the marquee categories.

BURIED - Ryan Reynolds' tour-de-force turn as a man-trapped-in-a-coffin has been overshadowed by James Franco’s similar guy-trapped-in-a-cave in 127 Hours. But look for Ryan to catch up when this opens next week. Oscar Chance: Funny guy Reynolds going dramatic could be irresistible to his fellow actors if Lionsgate decides to spend some money campaigning for him.

CASINO JACK - Its on-again/off-again release is now on again courtesy of an ATO pickup at Toronto. Two-time winner Kevin Spacey has a new opportunity for top honors playing disgraced lobbyist Jack Abramoff with flair and humor. Oscar Chance: Indie film needs to grab attention against higher profile competition in December if Spacey is to squeeze into the race.

LET ME IN - Superb gloriously reviewed American remake of Sweden’s 2008 cult vampire coming-of-age flick Let The Right One In, this is actually better than the original. Oscar Chance: Reviews could help. But good as it is, this type of movie is not really Oscar fodder and Relativity probably knows that.

MIRAL - In its Venice and Toronto screenings, Julian Schnabel’s first film since his award magnet, The Diving Bell And The Butterfly, failed to excite. Oscar Chance: Dimming since Venice.

STONE - Entertaining but odd mix of styles make this movie difficult to peg. But the actors are enormously watchable. Oscar Chance: Long shot even though Milla Jovovich is seductively appealing. Robert DeNiro turns in his best work in a while but probably has as much chance of a Best Actor nod for this as he does for Machete and Little Fockers.

NEVER LET ME GO - Audiences in Telluride and Toronto liked this one better the more they thought about it. So all that lingering in the mind could improve it awards prospects. Oscar Chance: If it were a weaker year for actresses, Carey Mulligan would be way up there again. Andrew Garfield will likely be recognized for The Social Network instead of his equally fine work here. Rachel Portman’s haunting score should be a shoo-in nominee though.

BARNEY’S VERSION - Sony Pictures Classics' Toronto pickup of this Venice hit is a smart move and could result in some nominations. Oscar Chance: With a decent campaign, Paul Giamatti can make a Best Actor play and Dustin Hoffman is possible in support.

BIUTIFUL - Javier Bardem’s Cannes Festival-winning performance lost none of its power in Telluride or Toronto where the American reviews improved from their mixed bag status on the Riviera. Oscar Chance: Bardem for sure. Foreign film if Mexico submits it. Dark horse in Best Picture if voters don’t turn it off because its “too depressing”.

JACK GOES BOATING - Philip Seymour Hoffman makes his directorial debut and stars as a plain lonely guy who hooks up with a plain lonely girl in this quirkly comedy/drama reminiscent of 1955’s Best Picture and Actor winner, Marty. Oscar Chance: This isn’t 1955 and sorry Jack, but you’re no Marty. Strictly indie (as in Spirit Awards).

BLUE VALENTINE - Continuing its marathon festival journey from Sundance to Cannes (where it was 7 minutes shorter) to Toronto, Blue Valentine and its lead actors are still generating plenty of awards heat. Oscar Chance: Ryan Gosling and Michelle Williams are definite contenders.

TAMARA DREWE - Sony Classics would love this in-house production to get some traction. But no matter how you slice it, it’s pure comedy and that usually has its best shot at the limelight at the Globes. Oscar Chance: Writers like to laugh, so maybe screenplay.

THE WAY BACK - Newmarket picked up this classically made Peter Weir adventure just as it hit its one and only festival, Telluride. They still haven’t announced an Oscar qualifying run for December. But it would seem a no-brainer for this January 21st pretty wide release. Oscar Chance: Fellow directors could go for overdue 4-time nominee Weir. And the cinematography is right up there with anything released this year.

I will be doing a live blog of the Emmys tonight starting at 7 pm Central.

It is that time of year again --- time to predict this year's Oscar winners. In each category I will list who will win and who should win. Enjoy:

Best motion picture of the year

Will Win: The Hurt Locker
Should Win: Precious
 

Performance by an actor in a leading role

Will Win: Jeff Bridges in "Crazy Heart"
Should Win: Jeff Bridges in "Crazy Heart"

Performance by an actor in a supporting role

Will Win: Christoph Waltz in "Inglourious Basterds"
Should Win: Christoph Waltz in "Inglourious Basterds"

Performance by an actress in a leading role

Will Win: Sandra Bullock in "The Blind Side"
Should Win: Gabourey Sidibe in "Precious: Based on the Novel 'Push' by Sapphire"

Performance by an actress in a supporting role

Will Win: Mo'Nique in "Precious: Based on the Novel 'Push' by Sapphire"
Should Win: Mo'Nique in "Precious: Based on the Novel 'Push' by Sapphire"

Achievement in directing

Will Win: Kathryn Bigelow for "The Hurt Locker"
Should Win: James Cameron for "Avatar"

Best animated feature film of the year

Will Win: Up
Should Win: Up

Achievement in art direction

Will Win: Avatar
Should Win: The Young Victoria

Achievement in cinematography

Will Win: Avatar
Should Win: Inglourious Basterds

Achievement in costume design

Will Win: The Young Victoria
Should Win: Nine

Best documentary feature

Will Win: The Cove
Should Win: Burma VJ

Best documentary short subject

Will Win: Music by Prudence
Should Win: China's Unnatural Disaster: The Tears of Sichuan Province

Achievement in film editing

Will Win: The Hurt Locker
Should Win: District 9

Best foreign language film of the year

Will Win: The Secret in Their Eyes
Should Win: The White Ribbon

Achievement in makeup

Will Win:Star Trek
Should Win: Star Trek

Achievement in music written for motion pictures (Original score)

Will Win: Up
Should Win: Up

Achievement in music written for motion pictures (Original song)

Will Win: "The Weary Kind (Theme from Crazy Heart)" from "Crazy Heart"
Should Win: "The Weary Kind (Theme from Crazy Heart)" from "Crazy Heart"

Best animated short film

Will Win: Logorama
Should Win: Granny O'Grimm's Sleeping Beauty

Best live action short film

Will Win: The New Tenants
Should Win: Instead of Abracadabra

Achievement in sound editing

Will Win: The Hurt Locker
Should Win: Avatar

Achievement in sound mixing

Will Win: The Hurt Locker
Should Win: Avatar

Achievement in visual effects

Will Win: Avatar
Should Win: Avatar

Adapted screenplay

Will Win: "Precious: Based on the Novel 'Push' by Sapphire"
Should Win: "Precious: Based on the Novel 'Push' by Sapphire"

Original screenplay

Will Win: "The Hurt Locker"
Should Win: "Inglourious Basterds"

Hello all. It is the middle of January, and that can mean a few things.

One, it is cold. At least in the Northern Hemisphere.

Two, the NFL playoffs are in high gear. Geaux Saints!

And, three, the Golden Globes are waiting in the wings. This Sunday, January 17, the Hollywood Foreign Press Association will hand out this year’s first crop of major awards. While the Oscars are just for movies, the Globes combine the best in film and television.

But the Globes are not just any other award show. They are different in two ways. They are selected by a very small group (between 50 and 100 voting members who are, as the name implies, foreign media members who report from Hollywood), and they are more casual than the Oscars and Emmys. The latter makes for a more free-for-all award show where celebs routinely do odd things. The former, well, that means the voters tend to go to those with more global reach and certain political philosophies rather than the most deserving.

Still, the Globes are a great indicator to what the Oscar season has in store. So, without further delay, here are my picks for the 2010 Golden Globes!

TELEVISION BALLOT

Best TV Series - Drama
Nominees: Big Love, Dexter, House, Mad Men, True Blood
Will Win: Mad Men
Should Win: Dexter
--- Mad Men is an excellent series and has won this award before. That should be enough to give it another win. But Dexter, also an excellent series, had its best season yet. The serial killer drama should win, but will sadly fall short.

Best TV Series - Comedy or Musical
Nominees: 30 Rock, Entourage, Glee, Modern Family, The Office
Will Win: Glee
Should Win: Glee
--- That’s right. The HFPA will get this one right. Glee has a lot going for it. One, it is a great series. Two, it’s a feel-good show. Three, it is supremely musical. Four, it is beyond diverse. It has something for everyone AND it is excellent. The only series that could upstage Glee would be Modern Family. Not likely, but it has an outside chance.

Best Actor - Drama
Nominees: Simon Barker (The Mentalist), Michael C. Hall (Dexter), Jon Hamm (Mad Men), Hugh Laurie (House), Bill Paxton (Big Love)
Will Win: Hugh Laurie (House)
Should Win: Michael C. Hall (Dexter)
--- Hugh Laurie will walk away with the award. Any why not? He is British, a plus for the foreign voters, and he is an amazing actor who blew me away in House’s opener. But Hall, who plays the titular Dexter, makes cold-blooded sociopath look cool.

Best Actress - Drama
Nominees: Glenn Close (Damages), January Jones (Mad Men), Julianna Margulies (The Good Wife), Anna Paquin (True Blood), Kyra Sedgwick (The Closer)
Will Win: January Jones (Mad Men)
Should Win: January Jones (Mad Men)
--- Another winner for the HFPA. January Jones is the best actress on the show. She outshines even her co-star, Jon Hamm, and that says a lot.

Best Actor - Comedy or Musical
Nominees: Alec Baldwin (30 Rock), Steve Carell (The Office), David Duchovny (Californication), Thomas Jane (Hung), Matthew Morrison (Glee)
Will Win: Alec Baldwin (30 Rock)
Should Win: Matthew Morrison (Glee)
--- While Baldwin is a shoe-in (he has won the Emmy for the role already AND he is a HFPA favorite), Morrison shines as the glee coach in Glee.

Best Actress - Comedy or Musical
Nominees: Toni Collette (United States of Tara), Courtney Cox (Cougar Town), Edie Falco (Nurse Jackie), Tina Fey (30 Rock), Lea Michele (Glee)
Will Win: Toni Collette (United States of Tara)
Should Win: Tina Fey (30 Rock)
--- Collette has always had broad support within the HFPA and this year is no different. Add the fact she just won an Emmy for this role into the mix, and she should walk away with a Globe. But Fey’s spot-on genius as Liz Lemon on 30 Rock should be the winner.

FILM BALLOT

Best Drama
Nominees: Avatar, The Hurt Locker, Inglourious Basterds, Precious, Up in the Ait
Will Win: Up in the Air
Should Win: Precious
--- Up in the Air has Clooney. And in Globes season, that is enough for a mediocre film to take home the biggest prize. But it is Precious that should get the nod.

Best Comedy or Musical
Nominees: (500) Days of Summer, The Hangover, It’s Complicated, Julie & Julia, Nine
Will Win: Nine
Should Win: The Hangover
--- Nine is a lavish musical. That is all the HFPA look for. Though, I must admit (500) Days of Summer could get the upset win. But it is The Hangover that is the best comedy. Too bad the best comedy won’t win the best comedy category.

Best Actor - Drama
Nominees: Jeff Bridges (Crazy Heart), George Clooney (Up in the Air),  Colin Firth (A Single Man), Morgan Freeman (Invictus), Tobey Maguire (Brothers)
Will Win: George Clooney (Up in the Air)
Should Win: Colin Firth (A Single Man)
--- Clooney cannot walk into the HFPA’s ballroom and not go home with a prize. It’s as simple as that. Too bad he’s not the most deserving. That honor goes to Colin Firth. Too bad he’s going home empty handed.

Best Actress - Drama
Nominees: Emily Blunt (The Young Victoria), Sandra Bullock (The Blind Side), Helen Mirren (The Last Station), Carey Mulligan (An Education), Gabourey Sidibe (Precious)
Will Win: Carey Mulligan (An Education)
Should Win: Gabourey Sidibe (Precious)
--- Mulligan is a British actress in a British film. So, of course, the foreign media will award the Globe to her. And she is deserving. Just not as deserving as Sidibe, who managed to put warmth and love into a loveless and cold character in Precious.

Best Actor - Comedy or Musical
Nominees: Matt Damon (The Informant!), Robert Downey Jr. (Sherlock Holmes), Joseph Gordon Levitt ((500) Days of Summer), Daniel Day Lewis (Nine), Michael Stuhlbarg (A Serious Man)
Will Win: Daniel Day Lewis (Nine)
Should Win:  Michael Stuhlbarg (A Serious Man)
--- Daniel Day Lewis is another HFPA favorite. And in Nine he sings and dances. That is enough for a Globe win. But Stuhlbarg is far and away the better actor in the black comedy from the Coen Brothers.

Best Actress - Comedy or Musical
Nominees: Sandra Bullock (The Proposal), Maron Cotillard (Nine), Julia Roberts (Duplicity), Meryl Streep (Julie & Julia), Meryl Streep (It’s Complicated)
Will Win: Meryl Streep (Julie & Julia)
Should Win: Meryl Streep (Julie & Julia)
--- This is an easy one. Despite Cotillard being foreign in a musical, Streep knocks it out of the park as Julia Child. End of story.

Best Supporting Actor
Nominees: Matt Damon (Invictus), Woody Harrelson (The Mesenger), Christopher Plummer (The Last Station), Stanley Tucci (The Lovely Bones), Christoph Waltz (Inglourious Basterds)
Will Win: Christoph Waltz (Inglourious Basterds)
Should Win: Christoph Waltz (Inglourious Basterds)
Another one the HFPA will get right. Waltz’s brilliant turn as a Jew-hunter in Tarantino’s flick shines above the others. Add to it his European birth, and the Globe is his.

Best Supporting Actress
Nominees: Penelope Cruz (Nine), Vera Farmiga (Up in the Air), Anna Kendrick (Up in the Air), Julianne Moore (A Single Man), Mo’nique (Precious)
Will Win: Mo’nique (Precious)
Should Win: Mo’nique (Precious)
--- Wow. The HFPA is racking the right choices up. Mo’nique makes Precious even more authentic as the abusive mother. But it is her end of the film apology that makes her performance award-winning.

Best Director
Nominees: Kathryn Bigelow (The Hurt Locker), James Cameron (Avatar), Clint Eastwood (Invictus), Jason Reitman (Up in the Air), Quentin Tarantino (Inglourious Basterds)
Will Win: James Cameron (Avatar)
Should Win: Quentin Tarantino (Inglourious Basterds)
--- The HFPA will likely give the nod to Cameron for his anti-capitalistic, liberal epic, Avatar. He deserves it for the tech, but for nothing else. Quentin Tarantino deserves the win for vision and actual direction. But, the HFPA could go for an upset and give the Globe to Bigelow. They’d love to crown a woman, especially one who spearheaded an anti-Iraq war flick.

Best Animated
Nominees: Cloudy With a Chance of Meatballs, Coraline, Fantastic Mr. Fox, The Princess and the Frog, Up
Will Win: Up
Should Win: Up
--- Up is the best animated flick of the year. In fact, it may compete with the big boys come Oscar time.