Life. Blogged.

Well, it is that time of year. Actually that isn't true. For years on end Oscar has made its nominees announcement one or two weeks further into January, but this past year The Academy decided they hated waiting for all the guilds and other awards shows to make their picks and award their winners before The Academy even got around to nominating people and films. So, in an effort to make themselves "more relevant" they pushed up the nominations window. This had three huge impacts. First, nominations began near the beginning of December. Several films, including some of the biggest and most anticipated, had not even opened at the theater. This means that some of the Academy voters didn't get a chance to see all of the films. The second impact was ending the nomination period before all of the guilds (especially the influential Directors Guild) had a chance to make their feelings known. This could result in the broader Academy and the member guilds having very different picks. Finally, this is the first time in decades that the Academy makes its nominations before the Golden Globes are handed out. This, again, could result in some diverging picks.

And this isn't even noting the new e-voting....

Two quick nomination thoughts before the list:

1) Two movies that hit it big were Beasts of the Southern Wild and SILVER LININGS PLAYBOOK! Beasts is the little movie that could. It got a best actress nomination (including the youngest actress ever nominated), along with screenwriting and directing. Love it, love it, love it. And my personal favorite all along has been Silver Linings Playbook. SLP scored the sextuplet of nominations at the top. SLP has someone from ALL FOUR acting categories. SLP got a directing nod. And it got a Best Picture nod. This is a feat that has not been matched in more than three decades. And, in nearly every case (all but one in the history of The Academy), the film went on to win Best Picture.

2) Where are the big name directors? Sure, Spielberg got a nod for Lincoln, but Kathryn Bigelow didn't get a nom for Zero Dark Thirty. Tom Hooper didn't get one for Les Miserables. Ben Affleck didn't get one for  Argo. The chances of a film winning Best picture fall VERY dramatically when the film's director doesn't get nominated. In fact, it has been so long since a film won Best Picture without having its director nominated that it is considered a "death knell" for a film's chances.
 

So. On to the nominees. This will include the list of nominees in the top categories and my CURRENT thoughts on the CURRENT front-runners:

Best Picture:

"Beasts of the Southern Wild"--- Could be a dark house. Watch out SLP!

"Silver Linings Playbook" --- Not only is the my favorite, but getting a nod in every top category vaults it to the front.

"Zero Dark Thirty"

"Lincoln"--- Another dark horse. A historical Spielberg film has to be in the mix until the end.

"Les Miserables"

"Life of Pi"

"Amour"

"Django Unchained"

"Argo"
 

Best Director:

David O'Russell, "Silver Linings Playbook" ---- He has to be the frontrunner now with no Bigelow, Affleck or Hooper.

Ang Lee, "Life of Pi"--- Could be a dark horse because of the technical achievements in the film.

Steven Spielberg, "Lincoln"

Michael Haneke, "Amour"

Benh Zeitlin, "Beasts of the Southern Wild"

 

 

Best Actor:

Daniel Day Lewis, "Lincoln"--- Dark horse one because he becomes Lincoln.

Denzel Washington, "Flight" --- Dark horse two because he is simply amazing.

Hugh Jackman, "Les Miserables"

Bradley Cooper, "Silver Linings Playbook" --- Hands down the favorite for the moment.

Joaquin Phoenix, "The Master"

 

Best Actress:

Naomi Watts, "The Impossible"

Jessica Chastain, "Zero Dark Thirty"--- Dark horse one. She is very good; very versatile.

Jennifer Lawrence, "Silver Linings Playbook"--- Frontrunner. Not because of SLP's nomination haul, but because she is just that good.

Emmanuelle Riva, "Amour"

Quvenzhané Wallis, "Beasts of the Southern Wild"--- Who could say no to the youngest Oscar nominee ever?

 

Best Supporting Actor:

Christoph Waltz, "Django Unchained"

Philip Seymour Hoffman, "The Master"

Robert De Niro, "Silver Linings Playbook" --- He is irresistible here. Hilarious, infuriating, sad.

Alan Arkin, "Argo"

Tommy Lee Jones, "Lincoln"

 

Best Supporting Actress:

Sally Field, "Lincoln"

Anne Hathaway, "Les Miserables" --- She should have this in the bag.

Jacki Weaver, "Silver Linings Playbook"--- But SLP could run the table.

Helen Hunt, "The Sessions"

Amy Adams, "The Master"

So it has been several months since I have been on either DW or LJ. There's just too much stuff to do (life/work) and not enough time to do it. What little free time I have has been dedicated to personal drama, my kitties and playing on my PS3. There is just something wholly cathartic about shooting teenagers (via CoD or BF3) with a warm, fluffy kitty on my lap.... Weird, but satisfying...

Let's see.... Everything else pretty much sucks. I am still broke. I have had zero breakthroughs. Oh, and my health sucks....

I have little power over the first two, but I can do something about the last.... A little, anywho...

So, I joined a gym for the new year. I went yesterday and now I feel completely terrible. Nothing but teenagers with 28-inch waists and guys my age with six-packs and bulging arms.... Talk about a quick way to make a guy's self-esteem go from nothing to negative.... Part of me really wants to make a change, but there is a huge part of me that wants to be lazy... Being lazy is easier.... But there is also that huge part of me that wants to be a dad one day... And let's face it, I have to change for that to even have a chance...

The plan is to eat healthier. Not healthy... I would fail at that in a clogged heartbeat. Instead I am simply looking for healthier. I am also going to start walking again and I will go to the gym at least twice a week. The walking should be easy, I just need to trade videogame time for walking time. Then I need to trade cokes and donuts for tea and salads. The gym, though, will suck. I have already decided I will use that for the weights and that is about all... Besides, I couldn't afford the extra classes... There is a guy that has been assigned to me as part of my fee so I will utilize him a little. No too much though, as his chest is larger than my gut.... Damn.... I hate him.

Anywho, so that is that. I am not expecting a miracle. I would give anything for one, but I need to keep my expectations low... If I could lose 50  pounds this year I would say it was an overwhelming success... Although, I would much rather have a nacho cheese chalupa than a serving of no-fat spiced rice... (I hope these craving will vanish...Day 2 and I am wanting to give in...)

That is all for now,

ChrisBrad

I am old.

That is all.

Pollen.

Mold and mildew.

Trees and weeds and grass.

It's all conspiring to kill me.

Here are some links to help you get by without my Oscar blog:

Gold Derby Live Blog

Deadline.com Snark Blog

Yep, it is THAT time of year again. Time for the Hollywood elite and their addiction therapists to step out from the shadows and into a primetime telecast!

Like last year's Oscars, there are again 10 nominees for Best Picture. But this year the Academy is using a variation of "preferential voting" to determine winners. That means the most number one rankings do not a winner make. In fact, the winning picture could, mathematically, be ranked as low as sixth on a majority of ballots and still come away a winner. I am sure that puts a lot of faith in the Academy!

Anywho, here is a list of nominees for each category followed by who SHOULD win and who is LIKELY to win. Because of the preferential voting, it is beyond impossible to say who will win, just who is most likely.

Oh, and I will also be live blogging the Oscars beginning anywhere from 4 to 7 (when the show starts), depending on my setup. So, here it goes:

BEST PICTURE
"127 Hours"
"Black Swan"
"The Fighter"
"Inception"
"The Kids Are All Right"
"The King's Speech"
"The Social Network"
"Toy Story 3"
"True Grit"
"Winter's Bone"

SHOULD WIN:  Inception
LIKELY TO WIN: The King's Speech


BEST ACTOR
Javier Bardem, "Biutiful"
Jeff Bridges, "True Grit"
Jesse Eisenberg, "The Social Network"
Colin Firth, "The King's Speech"
James Franco, "127 Hours"

SHOULD WIN:  Jesse Eisenberg
LIKELY TO WIN: Colin Firth


BEST ACTRESS
Annette Bening, "The Kids Are All Right"
Nicole Kidman, "Rabbit Hole"
Jennifer Lawrence, "Winter's Bone"
Natalie Portman, "Black Swan"
Michelle Williams, "Blue Valentine"

SHOULD WIN:  Jennifer Lawrence
LIKELY TO WIN: Natalie Portman


BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Christian Bale, "The Fighter"
John Hawkes, "Winter's Bone"
Jeremy Renner, "The Town"
Mark Ruffalo, "The Kids Are All Right"
Geoffrey Rush, "The King's Speech"

SHOULD WIN:  John Hawkes
LIKELY TO WIN: Christian Bale


BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Amy Adams, "The Fighter"
Helena Bonham Carter, "The King's Speech"
Melissa Leo, "The Fighter"
Hailee Steinfeld, "True Grit"
Jacki Weaver, "Animal Kingdom"

SHOULD WIN:  Jacki Weaver
LIKELY TO WIN: Melissa Leo


BEST DIRECTOR
Darren Aronofsky, "Black Swan"
Ethan Coen, Joel Coen, "True Grit"
David Fincher, "The Social Network"
Tom Hooper, "The King's Speech"
David O. Russell, "The Fighter"

SHOULD WIN: David Fincher
LIKELY TO WIN: David Fincher


BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
"Another Year," Mike Leigh
"The Fighter," Paul Attanasio, Lewis Colich, Eric Johnson, Scott Silver, Paul Tamasy
"Inception," Christopher Nolan
"The Kids Are All Right," Stuart Blumberg, Lisa Cholodenko
"The King's Speech," David Speidler

SHOULD WIN:  Inception
LIKELY TO WIN: The King's Speech


BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
"127 Hours," Simon Beaufoy, Danny Boyle
"The Social Network," Aaron Sorkin
"Toy Story 3," Michael Arndt
"True Grit," Ethan Coen, Joel Coen
"Winter's Bone," Debra Granik, Anne Rosellini

SHOULD WIN:  Winter's Bone
LIKELY TO WIN: The Social Network


BEST ART DIRECTION
"Alice in Wonderland," Robert Stromberg; Karen O’Hara, Peter Young
"Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows: Part I," Stuart Craig; Stephanie McMillan
"Inception," Guy Dyas; Lisa Chugg, Paul Healy, Douglas A. Mowat
"The King’s Speech," Eve Stewart; Judy Farr
"True Grit," Jess Gonchor; Nancy Haigh

SHOULD WIN:  Alice in Wonderland
LIKELY TO WIN: The King's Speech


BEST CINEMATOGRAPHER
"Black Swan," Matthew Libatique
"Inception," Wally Pfister
"The King’s Speech," Danny Cohen
"The Social Network," Jeff Cronenweth
"True Grit," Roger Deakins

SHOULD WIN:  Inception
LIKELY TO WIN: True Grit


BEST COSTUME DESIGN
"Alice in Wonderland," Colleen Atwood
"I Am Love," Antonella Cannarozzi
"The King’s Speech," Jenny Beaven
"The Tempest," Sandy Powell
"True Grit," Mary Zophres

SHOULD WIN:  Alice in Wonderland
LIKELY TO WIN: The King's Speech


BEST EDITING
"127 Hours," Jon Harris
"Black Swan," Andrew Weisblum
"The Fighter," Pamela Martin
"The King’s Speech," Tariq Anwar
"The Social Network," Kirk Baxter, Angus Wall

SHOULD WIN:  Black Swan
LIKELY TO WIN: The Social Network


BEST MAKEUP
"Barney’s Version"
"The Way Back"
"The Wolfman"

SHOULD WIN:  The Wolfman
LIKELY TO WIN: The Wolfman


BEST SCORE
"127 Hours," A.R. Rahman
"Inception," Hans Zimmer
"The Social Network," Trent Reznor, Atticus Ross
"The King’s Speech," Alexandre Desplat
"How to Train Your Dragon," John Powell

SHOULD WIN:  Inception
LIKELY TO WIN: The Social Network


BEST SONG
"If I Rise" from "127 Hours"
"Coming Home" from "Country Strong"
"I See the Light" from "Tangled"
"We Belong Together" from "Toy Story 3″

SHOULD WIN:  "If I Rise" (127 Hours)
LIKELY TO WIN: "We Belong Together" (Toy Story 3)


BEST SOUND
"Inception"
"The King's Speech"
"Salt"
"The Social Network"
"True Grit"

SHOULD WIN:  Inception
LIKELY TO WIN: Inception


BEST SOUND EDITING
"Inception"
"Toy Story 3"
"TRON Legacy"
"True Grit"
"Unstoppable"

SHOULD WIN:  Inception
LIKELY TO WIN: Inception


BEST VISUAL EFFECTS
"Alice in Wonderland"
"Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows: Part I"
"Hereafter"
"Inception"
"Iron Man 2"

SHOULD WIN:  Inception
LIKELY TO WIN: Inception


BEST FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM
"Biutiful" (Mexico)
"Dogtooth" (Greece)
"In a Better World" (Denmark)
"Incendies" (Canada)
"Outside the Law" (Algeria)

SHOULD WIN:  In a Better World
LIKELY TO WIN: In a Better World


BEST ANIMATED FEATURE FILM
"How to Train Your Dragon"
"The Illusionist"
"Toy Story 3"

SHOULD WIN:  Toy Story 3
LIKELY TO WIN: Toy Story 3


BEST ANIMATED SHORT
"Day & Night"
"The Gruffalo",
"Let’s Pollute"
"The Lost Thing"
"Madagascar, carnet de voyage (Madagascar, a Journey Diary)"

SHOULD WIN:  The Lost Thing
LIKELY TO WIN: Madagascar...


BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE
"Exit through the Gift Shop"
"Inside Job"
"Gasland"
"Waste Land"
"Restrepo"

SHOULD WIN:  Exit through the Gift Shop
LIKELY TO WIN: Inside Job


BEST DOCUMENTARY SHORT
"Killing in the Name"
"Poster Girl"
"Strangers No More"
"Sun Come Up"
"The Warriors of Qiugang"

SHOULD WIN:  Killing in the Name
LIKELY TO WIN: Strangers No More


BEST LIVE ACTION SHORT
"The Confession"
"The Crush"
"God of Love"
"Na Wewe"
"Wish 143"

SHOULD WIN:  Wish 143
LIKELY TO WIN: God's of Love

BEST DRAMA PICTURE
"The Social Network" – 6/5
"The King's Speech" – 7/5
"The Fighter" – 6/1
"Black Swan" – 12/1
"Inception" – 50/1

Michael Douglas, the presenter for this last award, won Best Drama Actor for "Wall Street" in 1987 and received the Cecil B. DeMille honor in 2004. After his recent bout with cancer, he observed, "There has to be an easier way to get a standing ovation."

Looks like The Social Network is rolling to an Oscar for Best Picture...

(via the envelope)

BEST COMEDY/MUSICAL PICTURE
"The Kids Are All Right" – 1/10
"Alice in Wonderland" – 9/1
"Burlesque" – 16/1
"Red" – 33/1
"The Tourist" – 100/1

(via the envelope)

BEST COMEDY/ MUSICAL ACTOR
Johnny Depp, "Alice in Wonderland" – 7/4
Kevin Spacey, "Casino Jack" – 9/5
Paul Giamatti, "Barney's Version" – 11/5
Jake Gyllenhaal, "Love and Other Drugs" – 66/1
Johnny Depp, "The Tourist" – 100/1

Giamatti now has a bookend for his TV Movie/Mini Actor win two years ago for "John Adams." He lost this same race in 2004 for "Sideways" and was a 2005 Supporting Actor nominee for "Cinderella Man."

(via the envelope)